Swing states, also known as battleground states, are states that could “swing” to either Democratic or Republican presidential candidates depending on the election. Because of their potential to go either "blue" or "red", political parties often spend much of their time and campaign resources on winning these states.
While there is no universal definition of a swing state, they typically have small vote margins and vote for candidates from both major political parties over time. In the last nine elections, 20 states have “swung” from one party to the other at least twice. And 26 states were won by less than three points in at least one presidential election.
What are the current swing states?
Six states that voted for Democrat Joe Biden in 2020 swung to Republican Donald Trump in 2024. These states were Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. All but Nevada also swung from Republican to Democratic in 2020.
Tight margins may also indicate a swing state — a narrow race could mean a state has a better chance of swinging in future elections. In 2024, five states were won by a margin of three percentage points or less: Georgia, Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Which states have historically been swing states?
Political realignment from one presidential election to the next — such as from Biden to Trump — can be one way to identify swing states. Years where a president is up for reelection tend to have fewer states that change parties. Since 1992, however, every presidential election has had at least a few states switch party affiliations.
Of the past nine presidential elections, the 1992 election had the most states that changed political parties. That year, 22 states flipped from the previous election to vote for Democrat Bill Clinton over Republican incumbent George H.W. Bush. Since then, no more than 11 states have flipped in any single election.
But many states have had close margins in the last 40 years. In the past 10 presidential elections, 26 different states were won by less than a three-point margin at least once. This includes Florida, New Hampshire, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, which have had tight margins in five of those elections.
These swing states have also shifted over time. 2008 and 2024 had the same number of states with close margins (five), but none in common. In 2008, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, and North Carolina were close. In 2024, the five were Georgia, Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Which states reliably vote with one political party?
In the last 10 presidential elections, 20 states and Washington, DC, have voted for the same party each time. Of these states, only three — Minnesota in 2016 and 2000, Oregon in 2000, and Washington in 1988 — have had close elections during that stretch.
Seven states and Washington, DC, have consistently voted for the Democratic presidential candidate since 1988, and 13 states have consistently voted for the Republican presidential candidate.
An additional eight states switched party alignment from 1988 to 1992 but have voted for the same party every election since.
Which states most often vote for the winner in presidential elections?
Because of the relative reliability of red and blue states, which direction the other states swing tends to impact election results. For that reason, one retroactive way to find an era’s swing states could be to analyze which states are voting for the elections’ winners most often.
In the last 10 elections, Nevada and Ohio have voted for the eventual winner nine times, and Florida, Michigan, and Pennsylvania have eight times.
Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are the only states that have voted for each of the last five presidential winners.
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All of the data on the page was sourced directly from government agencies. The analysis and final review was performed by USAFacts.
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