Military recruitment is down. Why don’t young Americans want to join?

A diminishing pool of Americans are eligible to join the Army, Navy, or Air Force. An even smaller pool want to.

Updated November 7, 2023 by the USAFacts team

While the Marine Corps and Space Force — independent branches organized under the Navy and Air Force, respectively — anticipate meeting their 2023 recruitment goals, the military expects to fall short of its goals for the Army, Navy, and Air Force. The Army expects to recruit 55,000 new soldiers in 2023, 10,000 short of its goal. The Air Force also expects a 10,000-person shortfall, and the Navy expects to be 6,000 shy of its goal.

Though the percentage of active duty military members has fluctuated since 2001, it has declined by 39% since 1987, its most recent high.

Who is eligible to join the military?

The Department of Defense developed a method for estimating the number of young adults who would be eligible to join the military. In 2020, its Qualified Military Available study estimated that 23% of Americans ages 17–24 were eligible for military service. (This age group represents 90% of the military’s applicants.) That was a decrease from 2016, when the department estimated that 29% were eligible.

In addition to age and citizenship requirements (some non-citizens can join the military), applicants must meet a set of criteria regarding their health, education, and criminal background.

Age

Eligibility for all branches of military is 17 to enlist, and the maximum age range is anywhere from 28 to 48 depending on the branch of military, and the type of activity while serving.

Education

To enlist, applicants must have a high school or general equivalency diploma (GED). In some branches of military, such as the Air Force, applicants have a higher chance of acceptance if they have a high school diploma rather than a GED.

Citizenship

All branches of the military require US citizenship. The Air Force, Army, Coast Guard, and Navy also allow legal permanent residents with valid Green Cards.

Physical requirements

Applicants must pass a medical exam and physical fitness test. Each branch of the military provides details on specific physical fitness requirements, such as vision or swimming capabilities, as well as policies for body modifications, such as tattoos and piercings. Space Force is the only branch which does not specifically outline physical fitness requirements to apply, and opts instead to track “holistic, continuous” fitness via wearable fitness trackers.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has highlighted physical barriers, such as obesity, as a main factor for military ineligibility. The agency notes that just over one in three young adults is too overweight to serve in the US military.

Criminal history

Applicants cannot have what the military deems a “significant criminal record.” Each branch of the military can grant “moral waivers” in some cases to those with criminal records, such as isolated misdemeanor offenses and some categories of felonies.

What’s keeping young Americans from joining the military?

In the fall of 2022, Joint Advertising Marketing Research & Studies (JAMRS), a program run by the US Department of Defense, polled people ages 16-24 about their likelihood to join the military and why or why not. When asked, “In the next few years, how likely is it that you will be serving in the Military?” 2% replied, “Definitely,” and 7% replied, “Probably.”

Conversely, 32% replied “Probably not,” and 58% replied “Definitely Not,” amounting to 90% of young people who are unlikely to consider the military as a career path.

“One of the biggest challenges we have is just that propensity to serve," said Stephanie Miller, the deputy assistant secretary of defense for military personnel policy, at the Association of the United States Army’s annual meeting in 2022.

On the same topic, New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand said “We know that America's youth have a historically low level of interest in military service and enjoy a highly favorable job market, which makes it even more difficult to recruit and retain highly skilled personnel” at the Senate Armed Services Hearing on the Recruiting and Retention Efforts in the Defense Department in September of 2022.

Pay, future educational opportunities, and travel are the top three reasons people say they would join the military, according to the OPA survey.

Where does the data come from?

Youth “Propensity Update” survey

The youth “Propensity Update” survey data comes from the Office of People Analytics team at Joint Advertising Marketing Research & Studies (JAMRS), which is a program run by the US Department of Defense. The survey is administered twice a year in the Spring and the Fall, with the purpose of understanding how likely American youth are to serve in the US military. It is a mail-based survey that is completed by approximately 4000-5000 young people ages 16—24. It is also weighted to reflect the general population based on gender, age, race/ethnicity, educational attainment, and region.