This month, residents along the West Coast have grappled with destructive wildfires.
Since January 1, 5.5 million acres—an area about the size of New Jersey—have burned in wildfires. Most of that destruction has been since the late summer. As of September 11, 101 active wildfires have burned 4.5 million acres, according to data compiled by the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC).
Nearly two decades of data show that wildfires — defined by NIFC as any “unplanned” and “unwanted” fire that begins in an undeveloped location — have become more destructive over the years.
The number of wildfires nationwide varies widely each year. There were 74,126 recorded in 2011 and 50,477 recorded in 2019, a 30-year-low. The amount
of land burned also varies widely year to year, with more than 10 million acres affected in 2017 (slightly smaller than Massachusetts and Connecticut combined) and 4.7 million affected in 2018.
This variability is even more noticeable when looking at the annual data back to 1983. Comparing 10-year averages shows a few trends.
First, the number of acres burned has increased in recent decades. The average for the last 10 full years (2010 to 2019) was about 6.8 million acres, slightly larger than the state of Massachusetts. That’s 153% higher than the 10-year average of 2.7 million acres between 1983 to 1992.
NOTE: This data includes all wildland fire excluding fires classified as “prescribed” or planned by government agencies.
The second trend to note is that the number of wildfires is lower than levels in previous decades.
The result is the third trend: The average wildfire is burning a larger area of land. Between 1983 and 1992, the average wildfire affected 43 acres of land, the size of 33 football fields. Between 2009 and 2018, the average fire affected 107 acres, a third the size of the National Mall.
In terms of the nearly 670,000 of wildfires reported nationally between 2009 and 2018, five states were responsible for 41% of those: Texas (13%), California (12%), North Carolina (6%), Georgia (6%) and Florida (4%).
During that period, 70 million acres (about the size of Colorado) were burned in wildfires. Fifty-four percent of that land burned in just five states: Alaska (18%), California (10%), Idaho (9%), Texas (8%) and Oregon (8%).
The severity of fires differs by state. The average wildfire blaze in Alaska from 2009 to 2018 affected nearly 2,500 acres. However, 14 states had wildfires that affected on average less than 10 acres.
The NIFC classifies wildfires based on ignition source. The two primary ignition sources are lightning strikes and humans. A wildfire is classified as human-caused and can begin via “debris burning, campfires, arson, discarded smoking products, sparks from equipment in operation, arced power lines, and other means.”
Between 2010 and 2019, 87.3% of wildfires were classified as human-caused, while lightning strikes were responsible for the rest. However, wildfires caused by lightning are more destructive than human sources. Over those 10 years, 57% of the acres burned in wildfires were caused by lightning.
Whether 2020 becomes a record-breaking year for wildfires in the United States is not yet known, but the data shows that the destructiveness of these disasters has trended upward in recent decades.
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