Ask an Analyst: Lending some color to the political map
Go behind the scenes with our team as we find and make sense of the numbers.
Some data questions are easy to answer. “How many disasters are declared in the US?,” for example: the president has to approve all disaster declarations, we can count ‘em up real easy (or FEMA can, and we can use its data). Others require more analytical rigor: When my colleague Amber wanted to learn how long it takes to become a citizen, that involved parsing many different pathways immigrants can take, then wrangling all that data into an understandable (and beautifully visual!) answer.
Other queries are somewhat difficult to answer, not because the data is unwieldy or elusive, but because the questions themselves are somewhat open-ended or hard to measure. Such is the case for two of our readers’ favorite conceptually related questions: “How red or blue are each of the US states?” and “Which states are swing states?”
These are concepts that dominate political discourse. The idea of swing states is mostly tied to presidential election seasons, during which certain elections in hotly contested states might “swing” either way (and swing the national with them). Thus, swing states are epicenters of campaign spending and media attention, while reliably red and blue states comfortably cast their electoral power.
Outside of elections, consistently red or blue states are often venues for a party’s factions to play out party debates in practice and, sometimes, give rise to new leadership. Meanwhile more “purple” states are often political battlegrounds for local legislative action. A state’s political “color” can be as much a part of its cultural identity as anything.
Unfortunately for us at USAFacts, there’s no National Agency for Political Hues publishing the “Annual Report on Redness and Blueness: State and County Tables” that tells us Michigan had a Swing Index of 147 or something in 2024. The federal government hasn’t partnered with Pantone to trademark precise colors for each state’s position on the partisanship spectrum (not yet — if you’re reading this, Pantone, let’s get in touch). As far as I can tell, there’s no consensus on what specifically (and quantitatively) makes a state red or blue, and no universal designation for what a swing state is.
A powerful concept without a quantifiable definition? Sounds like a fun challenge for a data analyst.
Lucky for me, the work to answer the question of how to define swing states started before my time at USAFacts. In this article, which has since been updated with the latest data, USAFacts analysts broke down swinginess by looking at presidential election data a few different ways, including:
- How often does a state vote for the same party?
- How often is a state decided by a small margin?
- How often does a state vote for the eventual electoral winner?
These are great questions, previous analysts! If a swing state is defined by its potential for landing on either side of the aisle in a presidential election, let’s tackle how often it’s done so and how narrow the margins tend to be. And, if it’s defined by its potential to swing an election, analyzing how often it votes for the eventual winner is a clever bit of reverse engineering.
It’s a satisfying exploration of historical swing states, and it’s also a great place to start further exploration about redness and blueness more generally. Looking beyond which states swing from one side to another, what can presidential election data tell us about a state’s degree of, well, saturation?
Which side has each state voted for in presidential elections and by what margins? This data shows us that 20 states (and Washington, DC) have voted the same way in each of the last 10 elections. That’s a pretty deep red for 13 states and blue for seven. We also see that Donald Trump won Wyoming by 46 points in 2024 and Kamala Harris won Vermont by 32, giving them respective claims as the reddest and bluest states by that measure.
Explore presidential election results by state since 1988.
Margin of victory in presidential elections, colored by margin size and party
Beyond presidential voting
A state’s partisanship goes beyond presidential election results. The politics of the representatives states send to Congress also inform their political tint. Forty-six states have either two Republicans or two Democrats in the Senate, leaving four with either one of each or an Independent in the mix.
Alternatively, most states have some combination of Republicans and Democrats representing them in the House - this split also can give us an idea of how partisanship trends regionally within states. The largest single-party congressional delegations, where all the state's Senators and Representatives are from the same party, are blue Massachusetts (with two Senators and nine Representatives) and red Oklahoma (with two Senators and five Representatives).
Then there’s local leadership, where some states’ residents vote quite differently. Kentucky, which has voted for seven straight Republican presidential candidates, including Trump in 2024 by 31 points, is led locally by Democratic Governor Andy Beshear. On the other hand, Vermont — the same Vermont I just told you voted for Harris at the highest margin of any state in 2024 — is governed by Republican Phil Scott.
As of now, that’s where our analysis has landed - with a mix of presidential election results, representation in Washington, and local leadership. Who is the bluest state by these measures? Or the reddest? Click around this table and explore for yourself.
Which states are reddest and bluest?
Partisan characteristics of each state and Washington, DC
Where to go from here
Like many a good data challenge, there is plenty of room for new ideas. In the future, we could dig deeper into the parties of local elected representatives, or evaluate states’ legislative landscapes for their partisan lean, tracking legislation around issues like abortion or marijuana. We don’t claim to be a comprehensive authority on the political color wheel - just to offer a way to bring data to a concept that shapes how we think about our politics.
Rigid definitions are helpful in analysis. When I start with a simple question, know where to look for data, and can plug that in as the answer, that’s a pretty quick and clean day at the office. But some of my favorite data projects start with a question like “what does that even mean?” That was the case here, and I haven’t stopped thinking about it yet.
Some data questions are easy to answer. “How many disasters are declared in the US?,” for example: the president has to approve all disaster declarations, we can count ‘em up real easy (or FEMA can, and we can use its data). Others require more analytical rigor: When my colleague Amber wanted to learn how long it takes to become a citizen, that involved parsing many different pathways immigrants can take, then wrangling all that data into an understandable (and beautifully visual!) answer.
Other queries are somewhat difficult to answer, not because the data is unwieldy or elusive, but because the questions themselves are somewhat open-ended or hard to measure. Such is the case for two of our readers’ favorite conceptually related questions: “How red or blue are each of the US states?” and “Which states are swing states?”
These are concepts that dominate political discourse. The idea of swing states is mostly tied to presidential election seasons, during which certain elections in hotly contested states might “swing” either way (and swing the national with them). Thus, swing states are epicenters of campaign spending and media attention, while reliably red and blue states comfortably cast their electoral power.
Outside of elections, consistently red or blue states are often venues for a party’s factions to play out party debates in practice and, sometimes, give rise to new leadership. Meanwhile more “purple” states are often political battlegrounds for local legislative action. A state’s political “color” can be as much a part of its cultural identity as anything.
Unfortunately for us at USAFacts, there’s no National Agency for Political Hues publishing the “Annual Report on Redness and Blueness: State and County Tables” that tells us Michigan had a Swing Index of 147 or something in 2024. The federal government hasn’t partnered with Pantone to trademark precise colors for each state’s position on the partisanship spectrum (not yet — if you’re reading this, Pantone, let’s get in touch). As far as I can tell, there’s no consensus on what specifically (and quantitatively) makes a state red or blue, and no universal designation for what a swing state is.
A powerful concept without a quantifiable definition? Sounds like a fun challenge for a data analyst.
Lucky for me, the work to answer the question of how to define swing states started before my time at USAFacts. In this article, which has since been updated with the latest data, USAFacts analysts broke down swinginess by looking at presidential election data a few different ways, including:
- How often does a state vote for the same party?
- How often is a state decided by a small margin?
- How often does a state vote for the eventual electoral winner?
These are great questions, previous analysts! If a swing state is defined by its potential for landing on either side of the aisle in a presidential election, let’s tackle how often it’s done so and how narrow the margins tend to be. And, if it’s defined by its potential to swing an election, analyzing how often it votes for the eventual winner is a clever bit of reverse engineering.
It’s a satisfying exploration of historical swing states, and it’s also a great place to start further exploration about redness and blueness more generally. Looking beyond which states swing from one side to another, what can presidential election data tell us about a state’s degree of, well, saturation?
Which side has each state voted for in presidential elections and by what margins? This data shows us that 20 states (and Washington, DC) have voted the same way in each of the last 10 elections. That’s a pretty deep red for 13 states and blue for seven. We also see that Donald Trump won Wyoming by 46 points in 2024 and Kamala Harris won Vermont by 32, giving them respective claims as the reddest and bluest states by that measure.
Explore presidential election results by state since 1988.
Margin of victory in presidential elections, colored by margin size and party
Beyond presidential voting
A state’s partisanship goes beyond presidential election results. The politics of the representatives states send to Congress also inform their political tint. Forty-six states have either two Republicans or two Democrats in the Senate, leaving four with either one of each or an Independent in the mix.
Alternatively, most states have some combination of Republicans and Democrats representing them in the House - this split also can give us an idea of how partisanship trends regionally within states. The largest single-party congressional delegations, where all the state's Senators and Representatives are from the same party, are blue Massachusetts (with two Senators and nine Representatives) and red Oklahoma (with two Senators and five Representatives).
Then there’s local leadership, where some states’ residents vote quite differently. Kentucky, which has voted for seven straight Republican presidential candidates, including Trump in 2024 by 31 points, is led locally by Democratic Governor Andy Beshear. On the other hand, Vermont — the same Vermont I just told you voted for Harris at the highest margin of any state in 2024 — is governed by Republican Phil Scott.
As of now, that’s where our analysis has landed - with a mix of presidential election results, representation in Washington, and local leadership. Who is the bluest state by these measures? Or the reddest? Click around this table and explore for yourself.
Which states are reddest and bluest?
Partisan characteristics of each state and Washington, DC
Where to go from here
Like many a good data challenge, there is plenty of room for new ideas. In the future, we could dig deeper into the parties of local elected representatives, or evaluate states’ legislative landscapes for their partisan lean, tracking legislation around issues like abortion or marijuana. We don’t claim to be a comprehensive authority on the political color wheel - just to offer a way to bring data to a concept that shapes how we think about our politics.
Rigid definitions are helpful in analysis. When I start with a simple question, know where to look for data, and can plug that in as the answer, that’s a pretty quick and clean day at the office. But some of my favorite data projects start with a question like “what does that even mean?” That was the case here, and I haven’t stopped thinking about it yet.
